Fig. 3

Future projections for accumulated mass of buoyant (a) macroplastic (i.e., plastic items > 5 mm) and (b) secondary microplastics (i.e., plastic fragments < 5 mm generated by degradation of macroplastics) at the ocean surface under three scenarios: (1) business as usual (i.e., emissions increase at average 2005–2015 growth rate), (2) 80% emission reduction from 2020, and (3) 80% emission reduction from 2020 combined with a 12% annual cleanup of macroplastics. These scenarios are based on the global degradation and circulation model by Lebreton et al. (2019) [15]